KABUL’S WORSENING WATER CRISIS

KABUL’S WORSENING WATER CRISIS: AN IMPENDING HUMANITARIAN DISASTER

1* Sayed Najibullah Hashimi 2* Dr. Nagendra. H.N

1*Research Scholar

School of Planning and Architecture University of Mysore

Department of Planning

2*Supervisor

Professor of Urban and Regional Planning

Department of Planning

School of Planning and Architecture,

Manasa Gangotri, University of Mysore, Mysuru-570006

 

An overview of the water crisis in Kabul

 Afghanistan’s capital, Kabul, is in danger of becoming the first major capital city in the modern period to run entirely out of water, maybe as early as 2030, due to an extreme and unprecedented water shortage. This is a contemporary reality rather than a threat for the future, brought on by a combination of government, infrastructure, and environmental shortcomings. Due to a severe water scarcity, Kabul, the capital of Afghanistan, could become the first modern city to run out of water by 2030. Due to decades of violence and government failures, unchecked groundwater exploitation, fast population growth, and the consequences of climate change, the city is in danger of experiencing a water shortage. The aquifers in the Afghan capital, which is home to over six million people, may run dry by 2030 if nothing is done.

Groundwater levels have dropped by as much as 30 meters in the past decade, nearly half of the city’s boreholes have dried up, and more than 80 percent of the remaining water is contaminated with salt, arsenic, and sewage. Urban households can spend as much as 30% of their income on water, while impoverished populations are forced to pick between basic necessities like food and water. This article evaluates the underlying causes, potential impacts, and mitigation strategies, including large-scale infrastructure projects, artificial groundwater recharge, legislative changes, and international assistance. Research suggests that prompt, coordinated intervention could prevent a humanitarian tragedy, boost urban resilience, and ensure a water supply. The study highlights the critical need for sustainable water governance in rapidly urbanizing, conflict-affected areas.

Figure :1

Kabul is situated on the southeast side of the Hindu Kush in a broad valley. One of the most important concerns for the city and its residents is water access because it is landlocked and lacks any significant inland bodies of water. The Hindu Kush mountains, which stretch along the western side of Kabul in an approximate northeast to southwesterly orientation, are the source of the great majority of the city’s groundwater. The area of the Kabul River basin is around 1600 square kilometers. The Kabul River and two of its tributaries supply the basin with water; the Logar River comes from the south, while the Paghman River enters from the west. With flow volumes up to 15 times higher in the peak spring months than in the winter, all three rivers are heavily reliant on seasonal meltwater from the Hindu Kush. “Riverbed infiltration” is the method used to replenish Kabul’s three primary aquifers. Water percolates through the permeable alluvial plains of the Kabul River basin and into the underlying layers of sand, gravel, loam, and clay as the aforementioned rivers flow farther into the basin’s center.

The combined volume of these three aquifers is about 5 billion cubic meters, which is far more than what would be needed to feed Kabul’s roughly 6 million residents. However, only a portion of this capacity is preserved due to over-extraction of groundwater and reduced aquifer recharge brought on by climate shocks.

source: Mercy Corps, Kabul’s water basins

The severity of the current water crisis

 By 2025, Kabul’s almost six million residents’ well-being will be in jeopardy due to a severe and complex water shortage. The city’s aquifers’ groundwater levels have dropped by a startling 25 to 30 meters in the last ten years, and yearly extraction has surpassed natural recharging by about 44 million cubic meters. According to UNICEF estimates, Kabul’s aquifers would run out completely by 2030 if present patterns continue, which might force up to three million people to relocate. The main supply of drinking water in Kabul, boreholes, has already run dry in about half of its locations. Over 120,000 private bore wells that are not regulated, together with Groundwater is being depleted by massive industrial and agricultural withdrawals at a rate that is almost twice as fast as it is naturally replenished. Widespread pollution exacerbates the situation. According to studies, up to 80% of Kabul’s groundwater is contaminated with sewage, pollutants, and dangerous levels of nitrates and arsenic, posing serious health concerns to the city’s citizens. Schools and medical facilities have been forced to close in a number of neighbourhoods because to the contamination and scarcity. The cost of buying water has increased significantly for homes without access to private wells, escalating financial strains. In the meantime, groundwater has been marketed by private water providers, who then resell it to locals at exorbitant costs. Community conflicts are now also fueled by water scarcity; according to an Oxfam poll conducted in 2008, 40% of participants named water as a major In the meantime, groundwater has been marketed by private water providers, who then resell it to locals at exorbitant costs. Community tensions are now also fueled by water scarcity; according to an Oxfam poll conducted in 2008, 40% of participants cited water as a major factor in neighbourhood and tribal disputes.

Stressors in the Environment and Climate Change

 It is impossible to comprehend Kabul’s water issue without considering Afghanistan’s wider climate risks. The nation is extremely vulnerable to drought; the most recent one, which lasted from 2021 to 2024, impacted almost 11 million people nationwide. Groundwater replenishment has been severely constrained by decreased precipitation in key catchment areas, as well as by dwindling snowfall and glacier melt from the Hindu Kush mountains, which are the main source of Kabul’s aquifer recharge. Afghanistan barely received 45–60% of its typical winter precipitation between October 2023 and January 2024, which disrupted natural recharging cycles. By decreasing permeable surfaces, obstructing infiltration, and changing conventional water management techniques, rapid urbanization has further upset natural cycles.

Principal Reasons for the Crisis:

1. Excessive Groundwater Extraction: A significant imbalance between replenishment and consumption lies at the heart of the issue. An estimated 44 million cubic meters more water is taken out of the city each year than can be replenished naturally by its aquifers. More than 120,000 uncontrolled private wells and boreholes that unsustainability drain groundwater make this possible.
2. Climate Change: The Hindu Kush mountains have seen a significant decrease in snowfall due to unpredictable weather patterns, protracted droughts, and warmer winters. Historically, the main source of aquifer recharge in Kabul has been this snowmelt. The depletion was accelerated by a recent winter (October 2023–January 2024) that saw only 45–60% of the usual precipitation.
3. Unplanned and Quick Population Growth: Conflict and rural migration have caused Kabul’s population to soar from less than 1 million in 2001 to over 6 million now. For a place of size, the water infrastructure—much of it dates back to the 1970s—is totally insufficient.
   4. Extreme Pollution: Because there is no centralized sewage system, industrial pollutants and human waste leak into the groundwater. Currently, an estimated 80% of Kabul’s groundwater is tainted with salinity, arsenic, and sewage, rendering it unfit for human use and causing a public health problem of its own.
4. Governance and Institutional Failure: Water management has been severely hampered by decades of conflict and the political shift in 2021. International financing pledges for key infrastructure have mostly not materialized on the ground, and regulatory organizations lack the authority to implement their mandates.

Serious Effects on Humans:

For the people of Kabul, the crisis is already ruining their daily lives:
The financial burden Families are purchasing water from private tankers for as much as 30% of their income. Over two-thirds of the population owe money for water.

1. Education and Health: There are several waterborne illnesses. Instead of going to school, children—especially girls—are compelled to spend hours every day getting water.
2. Displacement and Food Security: By 2035, local agricultural productivity is expected to drop by 40%. According to UN estimates, if the situation persists, more than 2 million people may be forced to leave their homes by 2030, resulting in a significant internal and external refugee catastrophe.
3. Unrest in Society: Tensions within the community are rising due to competition for limited water, raising the possibility of “water riots.”

Future Directions and Possible Remedies:

Experts concur that the situation can still be reversed, but it needs swift, significant action:

1. Significant Infrastructure Initiatives: To redirect water from the Panjshir River, a pipeline and the completion of planned dams like Shahtoot are essential long-term options. But problems with funding and political recognition have put these efforts on hold.
   2. Regulation and Management: Implementing water pricing and metering, investing in wastewater treatment plants, and enforcing well drilling rules are crucial stages.
   3. Man-made Conservation and Recharge: Urgently needed are aquifer-recharging projects and public awareness programs encouraging water conservation and rainwater collection.
2. International Aid and Political Will: Given the circumstances, it is imperative that international commitments be kept and that the current Afghan government give the water problem first priority. According to one analyst, if there is enough political will, the situation may be considerably resolved in a year and a half.

Possibility of Demand Control

An essential component of any IWRM plan is demand management. The cost of putting demand management strategies into place is modest to low when compared to supply side alternatives. Long-term, best practices for managing the entire water supply and infrastructure would be made possible by efficient demand management. There is enough room to provide strategies for lowering actual water consumption rates by utilizing the finest water management techniques available worldwide, like:

1. water-saving equipment and fittings.
2. alterations in behaviour and social awareness/education initiatives.
3. Finding and fixing leaks.
4. reduction in NRW losses.
5. lowering local storage and improving supply dependability.
6. Cost-effective pricing with rising water rates for blocks.

A guideline or aspirational design figure is the 150 LPCD. In reality, water use should be far lower, which would decrease the ability of water resources to be found, minimize the size of water infrastructure, and lower operating and capital expenditures. It should be remembered that a portion of the 150 LPCD can be satisfied by local resources such reclaimed water and rainwater collection. Water tariffs are a good way to cut back on water use.

Ways to Reduce the Use of Water

Realistically, any city might reach a household water demand of roughly 135 LPCD throughout the entire city, but only after putting the following policies into place:

1. Increased piping and plumbing requirements to stop leaks.
2. Tight construction guidelines, contract oversight, and leak detection.
3. Monitoring and fixing leaks and NRW.
4. Water pricing to discourage water leaks and waste, with incentives for reduced use.
5. Putting control devices in place at crucial times to introduce equity.
6. Tight regulations and enforcement of water use guidelines.
7. High levels of education and public awareness initiatives.
8. To implement Rainwater harvesting

It is imperative that a city use these best management practices because of the minimal amount of work required to obtain favourable outcomes and cost savings with water demand management.

Conclusion
Kabul’s water issue is an impending disaster. It is a complex catastrophe that affects human existence, dignity, and the right to the most basic necessities. It is now a serious humanitarian crisis that could lead to a mass collapse rather than only being an environmental or infrastructure problem. Kabul faces a future of widespread displacement, illness, and instability in the absence of prompt, concerted, and extensive intervention, setting a dire precedent for water-stressed cities around the world. The water problems in Kabul have been getting worse for decades, but they have now reached a turning point. Even as over-extraction rises, a mix of environmental and human-caused factors has drastically reduced the amount of seasonal fresh water entering Kabul’s aquifers. Residents of Kabul have restricted access to groundwater, which is becoming more hazardous to drink and poses a threat to general social, health, and economic issues. A complex interaction between economic demands, environmental deterioration, technological breakthroughs, and social and political obstacles is reflected in the changing dynamics surrounding Kabul’s water issues. These issues have been greatly exacerbated by recent shocks to Afghanistan’s humanitarian financing sources. The water problems in Kabul highlight how important and vital it is to implement sustainable water management plans, make investments in new infrastructure, and coordinate policies involving the public, commercial, and humanitarian sectors. Kabul may suffer a historic humanitarian catastrophe within the next ten years, and perhaps much sooner, unless significant changes are made to the city’s water management dynamics.